Thursday, January 19, 2006

Bush, Congress slip in latest poll

By Charles M. Madigan
Tribune national correspondent
Published January 18, 2006, 3:10 PM CST

President George Bush's sixth year in office begins Thursday and a new Gallup analysis says public opinion about the president has been at a low point over the past 12 months.

The job rating for Congress is in decline, too, with 67 percent of the people disapproving.

Gallup analyst Jeffrey M. Jones reports Bush's approval rating slipped to 37 percent in November, a new personal low that has dragged his overall approval rating for the last 12 months to 43 percent.

Bush's approval rating had shown some improvement as 2005 ended and stayed in the low 40 percent range for most of December. His fifth-year average was 45.8 percent, which ranks him close to President Bill Clinton's 46 percent approval rating during 1994 to 1995. Bush's father had a lower approval rating in 1992 to 93, at 41 percent.

The Gallup Poll has been collecting data on presidential approval since the Truman presidency. Of the 63 presidential years that have passed in that time, Bush's fifth year ranks as No. 48 on the list.

Bush has been wrestling with approval problems connected to public perceptions about the war in Iraq and a host of other difficulties that have plagued his administration, with the slow response to last year's hurricane crises on the Gulf Coast among the most serious.

He doesn't stack up well on the approval scale of re-elected presidents, according to Gallup. Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton all had approval ratings over 50 percent (with Eisenhower and Reagan over 60 percent) in their fifth years in office.

Still, his average is slightly better than Lyndon Johnson, who was at 43.9 percent, and Richard Nixon, at 41.1 percent. For different reasons, Johnson and Nixon were facing the ends of their presidencies during their fifth years in office. (Johnson became President after John F. Kennedy was assassinated. Nixon resigned at the peak of the Watergate scandal.)

The Gallup analysis notes Eisenhower, Clinton and Reagan had much higher quarterly averages during their 20 quarters in office, all at or over 59 percent. Truman and Johnson had averages slightly lower than Bush. President Nixon, at 28 percent approval, was the weakest and declined as his resignation approached.

In his analysis of congressional approval ratings, Gallup's Joseph Carroll notes that the public measure of congressional performance has shown a gradual decline over the past year.

About 40 percent of Americans approved of how Congress did its job a year ago. Today, that number is at 27 percent.

That's not the worst performance review for a sitting Congress, though. In 1979, just 19 percent approved of congressional performance. In 1992, just 18 percent approved.

This latest round of performance ratings shows big partisan differences, according to Gallup.

About 40 percent of Republicans approve of Congress, while just 22 percent of independents approve. Among Democrats, only 17 percent approve of Congress' performance.

See the Gallup poll.




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