The Big Picture: Moving the Goalposts: Fugly NFP

Behold! A very bad moon is a rising.

The Big Picture: Moving the Goalposts: Fugly NFP:

The Human capacity for self-delusion never ceases to amaze. If you ever hear me spouting the same sort of $%#* I heard on CNBC at 8:31am, grab me by the lapels, throw a glass of water in my face, slap me HARD across the face, and yell 'WAKE UP MAN, YOU'RE DELIRIOUS!'

How this month's NFP was labelled 'perfect' is simply beyond my ken. The only rational explanations I can think of are an unwitting influx of Psylociben or perhaps blunt head trauma. Steve Liesman was the notable exception, as he came away rather unimpressed with the data.

Let me say the nicest things I can say about NFP first: it was consistent with consensus expectations of Wall Street economists. The prior two months were revised higher, and the the unemployment rate fell slightly. Business and professional services companies' payrolls rose 26,000. Commercial construction added 17,000 (4,000 from residential!), making up for some of the losses in Home Sector (including residential building, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, contractors, etc.).