New poll: Is it really tied up?
ELECTION '08 Obama, Clinton in dead heat in survey
June 6, 2007
BY SCOTT FORNEK
Political Reporter sfornek@suntimes.com
So it's a neck-and-neck horse race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Or is it?
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A USA Today/Gallup Poll just found the two Democratic U.S. senators in a statistical dead heat for their party's presidential nomination.
It's not the first time Obama has tied Clinton. An automated telephone survey by Rasmussen Reports in April had the South Sider with 32 percent to the transplanted New Yorker's 30 percent -- another statistical draw.
But virtually every other poll gives Clinton a double-digit lead over Obama. Rasmussen's latest puts her up by 8 percentage points. Clinton's campaign officials are dubbing the USA Today survey an "outlier" -- a statistical fluke.
Some experts questioned the results and suggested Obama should be measured in his celebration.
"Sure, any poll that shows you are picking up on your opponent is good," said Kenneth Janda, professor emeritus of political science at Northwestern University. "First of all, it may reflect reality. And it may energize your base. So that is good news for Obama. However, there are vagaries in polling, and this is a small sample size."
Further complicating matters is that most of the polls are national, and the race for the nomination is run state-by-state. And in key states with early contests, Obama is trailing Clinton and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina in the latest American Research Group surveys.
To help you sort through it all, below are some of the latest major polls on the Democratic race. Only the top three candidates are included because all the others finished in single digits. We used results that excluded former Vice President Al Gore since he has not joined the race.
POLL POSITION
How the top three Democratic candidates fared in recent polls.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/415764,CST-NWS-POLL06.article
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....And The Truth Shall Set Us Free
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