Friday, April 28, 2006

Forecasts & Trends: Not good news for the GOP

InvestorsInsight : Forecasts & Trends > Archives > Print View:

"In my February 7 E-Letter earlier this year, Spencer Wright and I analyzed the electoral landscape for the upcoming mid-term elections, using some very sophisticated polling data. We wanted to see if the electoral map indicated a big sweep by the Democrats, as the media was suggesting at the time.

As you may recall, what we found was that the GOP was actually in pretty good shape in early February, despite the various missteps of the Bush administration in 2005. Based on the state-by-state polling data, we concluded that the best-case scenario for the Democrats was that they might pick up a few seats in the House, but nowhere near a majority, and they would likely pick up no seats in the Senate -- despite President Bush's low approval ratings.

The problem for the Democrats -- in early February -- was that there were not that many 'contested races' and of those that were, several were in states which seemed very unlikely to change parties.

Well, a LOT has changed in less than three months time! The continued gaffs by the Bush administration -- including the disastrous Dubai ports deal -- have radically changed voter sentiment, and the electoral map has swung significantly toward the Democrats. There is now the real chance that the Dems could take back the House and win a couple of seats in the Senate. "

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